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How a CA Police Department Avoids Nuclear Verdict
The Challenge
Our client, a municipal entity, was defending against a high-profile civil lawsuit alleging negligence and misconduct by law enforcement. The plaintiffs, three individuals, sought significant damages for emotional and physical harm, with demands totaling $55 million. The stakes were high, and the defense team needed an accurate assessment of potential exposure to make informed decisions before mediation.
How We Helped
To provide clarity, we conducted a detailed case valuation study. Using a carefully selected, demographically representative pool of jurors, we simulated 1,000 potential jury panels. The analysis revealed the following:
Verdict Inclinations
88% of jurors leaned toward the plaintiffs, with 69% strongly favoring them.
Damages Projections
The simulated average total award was $22.1 million, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from $10.5 million to $35.5 million.
Individual Damages Estimates
Plaintiff 1: $5.4 million
Plaintiff 2: $6.0 million
Plaintiff 3: $10.6 million
This data-driven approach highlighted juror tendencies and pinpointed key arguments that influenced their decision-making.
The Outcome
Armed with these insights, the defense team strategically approached mediation and successfully negotiated a settlement for $22 million—precisely aligned with our predicted average damages estimate. This outcome avoided the uncertainty of a trial while achieving a resolution acceptable to both parties.
Key Benefits for the Client
Accuracy
The damages projection provided a clear, reliable benchmark for settlement negotiations.
Strategy
Insights into juror inclinations helped the team prioritize case themes and craft persuasive arguments for mediation.
Efficiency
Our rapid, two-week turnaround allowed the defense to act decisively without delaying critical case milestones.
This case demonstrates the power of predictive analytics to transform litigation strategy, delivering precise results that enable informed decision-making.
